Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Simulation game?

Simulation + Gothic

Of 46 developers who shipped a Gothic Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1558 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 79 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 79 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.4k → $21k → $9.9k → $3.0k → $1.3k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,249)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,011)
Top 5% $978k (exactly $978,111)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 95
Announced 79
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 16,788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Castlevania Anniversary Collection older $19.99 1,798 80% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,078,261) KONAMI
Vampires: Bloodlord Rising · EA $19.99 1,631 70% 49k $978k (exactly $978,111) Mehuman Games
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
My Lovely Daughter older $14.99 1,165 70% 35k $524k (exactly $523,900) GameChanger Studio
A Chair in a Room : Greenwater older $24.99 598 83% 18k $448k (exactly $448,321) Wolf & Wood Interactive Ltd
Vampire Therapist older $14.99 915 93% 27k $411k (exactly $411,476) Little Bat Games
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail
My Lovely Wife older $14.99 685 74% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) GameChanger Studio, Toge Productions
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
The Unholy Priest $9.99 370 72% 11k $111k (exactly $110,889) Grejuva
Lust Sisters 🔞 $14.99 215 67% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Carnality INC
Alice's Gaze $3.99 770 91% 23k $92k (exactly $92,169) Starmoon Cat
Cage of Roses $12.99 190 88% 5.7k $74k (exactly $74,043) ebi-hime
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.