Do I ship it?

Games › Simulation › Simulation + World War I

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWI Simulation game?

Simulation + World War I

Of 23 developers who shipped a WWI Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $32k, ×51 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $2.7k. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 32 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 50.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + World War I
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0M → $4.5k → $15k → $3.2k → $2.7k → $1.0M (still earning) → $184k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + World War I: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,699)
Median $32k (exactly $31,880)
Top 25% $795k (exactly $795,335)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 91
Announced 32
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
World War I
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Simulation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Tactical
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 34,441 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $32k, 1 in 4 over $790k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  5. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  6. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  7. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  9. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  11. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  12. + 4 Player LocalFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Victoria 3 2022 · $62M Verdun 2015 · $52M Isonzo 2022 · $17M Holdfast: Nations At War 2020 · $16M Victoria II 2010 · $9.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Tannenberg older $19.99 7,644 86% 229k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,107) Blackmill Games
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
Aces of Thunder $29.99 1,159 57% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752) Gaijin Entertainment
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Sunken Engine $14.99 814 80% 24k $366k (exactly $366,056) Two Nomads Studio
Warnament $12.99 479 84% 14k $187k (exactly $186,666) Luden.io
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.