Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Simulation game?

Simulation + Western

Of 29 developers who shipped a Western Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×778 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 46 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $2.9k → $5.5k → $12k → $4.4k → $45k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,526)
Top 5% $489k (exactly $488,802)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 106
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Crafting, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 3,610 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
War of Rights · EA older $29.99 13,441 88% 403k $12M (exactly $12,092,868) Campfire Games
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
This Land Is My Land older $29.99 4,248 68% 127k $3.8M (exactly $3,821,926) Game-Labs
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
Heat older $19.99 2,612 49% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,566,416) Code}{atch
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
Railroad Corporation older $35.99 1,094 74% 33k $1.2M (exactly $1,181,192) Corbie Games
Above Snakes older $24.99 1,574 74% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,028) Square Glade Games
Depraved older $19.99 1,129 60% 34k $677k (exactly $677,061) Evil Bite
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Unbridled: That Horse Game · EA $24.99 487 85% 15k $365k (exactly $365,104) Mind Evotion Games
Wild West Supermarket Simulator $12.99 168 63% 5.0k $65k (exactly $65,470) SunDust
DEAD END COLOSSEUM SS $10.99 138 83% 4.1k $45k (exactly $45,499) TLACHTLI
Gold Miner:Classic Edition $3.99 350 82% 11k $42k (exactly $41,895) GameRival
Wild West Miner Simulator $5.99 181 66% 5.4k $33k (exactly $32,526) Digital Melody
I Want to Believe $16.99 47 80% 1.4k $24k (exactly $23,956) Fang's Lab
Ranchbound · EA $17.99 44 50% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Eldersong Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.