Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Simulation game?

Simulation + LGBTQ+

Of 272 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 303 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.7k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.7k. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 303 games are announced against 162 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 303 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 272
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $12k → $8.8k → $11k → $10k → $17k → $7.8k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 272
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $9.7k (exactly $9,742)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $70,925)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641)
Developers, 2 yr 272
Released games 1,148
Announced 303
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 135,331 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $9.7k, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 7 in 10 of the 191 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 303 games are announced against 162 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  6. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  7. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  9. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  11. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  12. + 4 Player LocalFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Paralives · EA $39.99 20,123 89% 604k $24M (exactly $24,141,563) Alex Massé and team
Unpacking older $19.99 35,072 93% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,032,678) Witch Beam
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action older $14.99 33,838 97% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,216,949) Sukeban Games
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
Yes, Your Grace older $19.99 12,571 87% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,538,829) Brave At Night
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Date Everything! $29.99 6,629 93% 199k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) Sassy Chap Games
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.