Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Simulation game?

Simulation + Martial Arts

Of 46 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.2k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3615 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 88 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 88 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $56k → $5.8k → $1.3k → $8.2k → $19k → $9.8k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $8.2k (exactly $8,150)
Top 25% $99k (exactly $98,939)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 139
Announced 88
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 74,219 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $8.2k, 1 in 4 over $98k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Amazing Cultivation Simulator older $24.99 19,111 85% 573k $14M (exactly $14,327,517) GSQ Games
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion older $17.99 22,287 84% 669k $12M (exactly $12,028,294) 半瓶醋工作室(Half Amateur Studio)
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu : The Books of Dragon) older $17.99 9,616 81% 288k $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
侠客风云传(Tale of Wuxia) older $16.99 6,501 76% 195k $3.3M (exactly $3,313,560) Heluo Studio
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Shenmue I & II older $29.99 2,144 89% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) D3T
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
xiuzhen idle $5.99 2,313 79% 69k $416k (exactly $415,646) 游戏养家工作室
轮回修仙传 $4.99 1,085 81% 33k $162k (exactly $162,424) Collider Studio
Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise $10.99 460 71% 14k $152k (exactly $151,662) 九芽川 Ninth Leaf
Stack to Ascension $12.99 331 54% 9.9k $129k (exactly $128,991) Stack to Ascension
LES MILLS XR BODYCOMBAT $29.99 121 85% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Odders Lab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.