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Should I ship a Procedural Generation Open World Survival Craft?
Open World Survival Craft + Procedural Generation
Of 31 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 95 more are announced, ×6.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $77k, ×57 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.4M, ×3303 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 95 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
|---|---|
| Median | $77k (exactly $77,219) |
| Top 25% | $307k (exactly $307,046) |
| Top 5% | $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 31 |
| Released games | 102 |
| Announced | 95 |
| Effort | 9 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $13.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World Survival Craft
- effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
- Procedural Generation
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 9 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- Open World Survival Craft, Procedural Generation; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Crafting, Exploration
- Price point
- $13.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 42,437 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 5 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + AutomationFair
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + MedievalPoor odds
- + ShooterPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + Sci-fiPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
Core Keeper 2024 · $30M 
Stoneshard 2020 · EA · $26M 
Nightingale 2024 · EA · $14M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | Core Keeper | older | $19.99 | 50,066 92% | 1.5M | $30M (exactly $30,024,580) | Pugstorm |
| | Stoneshard | · EA older | $24.99 | 34,149 74% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,601,505) | Ink Stains Games |
| | Nightingale | · EA older | $29.99 | 15,338 66% | 460k | $14M (exactly $13,799,599) | Inflexion Games |
 | Tribes of Midgard | older | $19.99 | 17,465 76% | 524k | $10M (exactly $10,473,760) | Norsfell |
 | MISERY | $12.99 | 20,015 85% | 600k | $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) | Platypus Entertainment | |
 | The Survivalists | older | $24.99 | 8,116 76% | 243k | $6.1M (exactly $6,084,565) | Team17 |
 | Len's Island | $24.99 | 5,935 82% | 178k | $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) | Flow Studio | |
 | Rising World | · EA older | $14.99 | 5,310 85% | 159k | $2.4M (exactly $2,387,907) | JIW-Games |
 | Romestead | · EA | $13.99 | 4,660 76% | 140k | $2.0M (exactly $1,955,802) | Beartwigs |
 | Cubic Odyssey | $24.99 | 2,406 74% | 72k | $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778) | Atypical Games | |
 | BitCraft Online | · EA | $15.99 | 3,334 72% | 100k | $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) | Clockwork Laboratories, Inc. |
 | Survivalist: Invisible Strain | $11.99 | 4,014 87% | 120k | $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) | Bob | |
 | Beyond the Map | · EA | $19.99 | 764 77% | 23k | $458k (exactly $458,171) | Glitch Goblins |
 | Space Trash Scavenger | $19.99 | 512 82% | 15k | $307k (exactly $307,046) | SquarePlay Games | |
 | CleanFall | · EA | $19.99 | 492 92% | 15k | $295k (exactly $295,052) | Humanyoyo |
 | Primitier | $19.99 | 305 94% | 9.2k | $183k (exactly $182,908) | Ota Mato |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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