Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Programming game?

Procedural Generation + Programming

Of 21 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Programming game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.3k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×331 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 28 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $65k → $748 → $5.3k (still earning) → $848 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Top 25% $65k (exactly $65,335)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $156,999)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 50
Announced 28
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation, Programming; all of the top 25% also carry Automation, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 2,327 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $5.3k, 1 in 4 over $65k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
Duskers older $19.99 2,304 90% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,709) Misfits Attic
City Game Studio: Your Game Dev Adventure Begins older $19.99 1,779 91% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,866) Binogure Studio 🐺
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
Auto Rogue $6.99 719 91% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 定期的な宝物
Archean · EA older $19.99 241 87% 7.2k $145k (exactly $144,528) batcholi, FloDKSM
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
14 Minesweeper Variants 2 older $6.99 368 97% 11k $77k (exactly $77,170) Alith Games, Artless Games
The Bibites: Digital Life · EA $9.99 218 96% 6.5k $65k (exactly $65,335) Omnia Studios
Icaria $24.99 79 75% 2.4k $59k (exactly $59,226) Blindsight Games LLC
DarkStone Restoration · EA $10.99 63 96% 1.9k $21k (exactly $20,771) Paul Cuisset
Observe · EA $7.99 74 91% 2.2k $18k (exactly $17,738) Kisotik Games
Kinetype · EA $6.99 36 83% 1.1k $7.5k (exactly $7,549) Morlytic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.