Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Deckbuilding?

Procedural Generation + Deckbuilding

Of 256 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 546 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×8.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $930k, ×1977 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 546 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 546 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 256
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $132k → $40k → $17k → $6.3k → $8.1k → $11k → $3.1k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 256
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $4.0k (exactly $3,984)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,014)
Top 5% $939k (exactly $939,130)
Developers, 2 yr 256
Released games 452
Announced 546
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation, Deckbuilding; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 254,846 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $930k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 546 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Slay the Spire 2 2026 · EA · $138M Balatro 2024 · $72M 暖雪 Warm Snow 2022 · $19M Monster Train 2020 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
He is Coming · EA $19.99 3,834 84% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) Chronocle
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.