Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Traditional Roguelike?

Procedural Generation + Traditional Roguelike

Of 71 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×4.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is flat on the market; 93 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 93 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 71
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $510k → $449 → $2.9k → $9.0k → $3.0k → $2.9k → $2.0k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 71
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,978)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,670)
Top 5% $390k (exactly $390,203)
Developers, 2 yr 71
Released games 158
Announced 93
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation, Traditional Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 23,084 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  4. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  5. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  6. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  11. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds10 devs · median $27k · 40 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Jupiter Hell older $24.99 1,795 91% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,345,712) ChaosForge
Tales of Maj'Eyal older $6.99 6,320 94% 190k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) Netcore Games
Cogmind · EA older $24.99 1,560 95% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,532) Grid Sage Games
Path of Achra older $9.99 3,166 98% 95k $949k (exactly $948,850) Ulfsire
Dungeons of Dredmor older $7.99 3,702 94% 111k $887k (exactly $887,369) Gaslamp Games, Inc.
Shattered Pixel Dungeon older $9.99 2,106 95% 63k $631k (exactly $631,168) Shattered Pixel
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Rift Wizard 3 · EA $19.99 308 88% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Dylan White, Khoops, Jacob Martinez
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Jupiter Hell Classic · EA $14.99 230 95% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) ChaosForge
Infinite Cards $15.99 96 93% 2.9k $46k (exactly $46,051) Tubby Turtle Studios
Dragon Front: Adventures $19.99 58 89% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) High Voltage Software, Inc.
HoloDungeon: Koyori vs HollowLive in Honsha Tower · EA $12.99 84 72% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) VELUX STUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.