Games › Open World › Open World + Procedural Generation
Should I ship a Procedural Generation Open World game?
Open World + Procedural Generation
Of 209 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 536 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.4k, ×2.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×1729 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 536 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $628 (exactly $628) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.4k (exactly $4,404) |
| Top 25% | $96k (exactly $95,952) |
| Top 5% | $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 209 |
| Released games | 648 |
| Announced | 536 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Procedural Generation
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Exploration, Building
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 98,470 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 100 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 536 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
RimWorld 2018 · $219M 
Transport Fever 2 2019 · $32M 
Core Keeper 2024 · $30M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | RimWorld | older | $34.99 | 208,693 97% | 6.3M | $219M (exactly $219,065,042) | Ludeon Studios |
| | Transport Fever 2 | older | $39.99 | 26,714 89% | 801k | $32M (exactly $32,048,786) | Urban Games |
| | Core Keeper | older | $19.99 | 50,066 92% | 1.5M | $30M (exactly $30,024,580) | Pugstorm |
 | Dwarf Fortress | older | $29.99 | 29,303 94% | 879k | $26M (exactly $26,363,909) | Bay 12 Games |
 | Stoneshard | · EA older | $24.99 | 34,149 74% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,601,505) | Ink Stains Games |
 | Banished | older | $19.99 | 37,895 90% | 1.1M | $23M (exactly $22,725,632) | Shining Rock Software LLC |
 | Hardspace: Shipbreaker | older | $34.99 | 19,431 89% | 583k | $20M (exactly $20,396,721) | Blackbird Interactive |
 | We Happy Few | older | $59.99 | 11,204 76% | 336k | $20M (exactly $20,163,839) | Compulsion Games |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | Caves of Qud | $29.99 | 11,892 94% | 357k | $11M (exactly $10,699,232) | Freehold Games | |
 | MISERY | $12.99 | 20,015 85% | 600k | $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) | Platypus Entertainment | |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | Elin | · EA | $19.99 | 8,406 93% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) | Lafrontier |
 | Len's Island | $24.99 | 5,935 82% | 178k | $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) | Flow Studio | |
 | Master of Command | $29.99 | 3,840 92% | 115k | $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) | Armchair Interactive | |
 | Keep Driving | $17.99 | 6,188 93% | 186k | $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) | YCJY Games | |
 | Nuclear Nightmare | · EA | $6.99 | 15,403 81% | 462k | $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) | BG Productions |
 | Flotsam | $24.99 | 4,308 80% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) | Pajama Llama Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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