Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Procedural Generation

Only 13 developers shipped a Procedural Generation Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Flotsam, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×9.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $11k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×2156 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 29 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $645k → $36k → $15k → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $10,793)
Median $15k (exactly $14,809)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,600)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 39
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause, Procedural Generation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Strategy, Building
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 8,400 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $11k, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Distant Worlds 2 older $49.99 2,653 72% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,978,704) CodeForce
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Judgment: Apocalypse Survival Simulation older $19.99 2,106 80% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,968) Suncrash
Trigon: Space Story older $19.99 1,247 67% 37k $748k (exactly $747,826) Sernur.tech
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
Deep Among the Swarm $8.99 132 85% 4.0k $36k (exactly $35,600) Pebble Mountain Games
A Little Age $14.99 61 62% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Benerot
Deep Space Outpost $15.99 32 71% 960 $15k (exactly $15,350) Niris Games
NovaMundi $12.99 38 81% 1.1k $15k (exactly $14,809) Slashware Interactive
Reclaim The Sea $11.99 41 75% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) 1LastGame
Earth of Oryn · EA $14.99 31 64% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Earth of Oryn
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.