Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Procedural Generation game?

Crafting + Procedural Generation

Of 209 developers who shipped a Crafting Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 537 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2693 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 537 games are announced against 124 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 537 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 209
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $9.0k → $7.2k → $6.7k → $18k → $2.2k → $5.7k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 209
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 25% $77k (exactly $76,540)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422)
Developers, 2 yr 209
Released games 520
Announced 537
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Exploration, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 105,498 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $76k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 537 games are announced against 124 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Core Keeper 2024 · $30M Dwarf Fortress 2022 · $26M We Happy Few 2018 · $20M The Riftbreaker 2021 · $20M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Core Keeper older $19.99 50,066 92% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,024,580) Pugstorm
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
We Happy Few older $59.99 11,204 76% 336k $20M (exactly $20,163,839) Compulsion Games
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Nightingale · EA older $29.99 15,338 66% 460k $14M (exactly $13,799,599) Inflexion Games
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
Romestead · EA $13.99 4,660 76% 140k $2.0M (exactly $1,955,802) Beartwigs
Cubic Odyssey $24.99 2,406 74% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778) Atypical Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.