Do I ship it?

GamesPolitical SimPolitical Sim + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Political Sim?

Political Sim + Procedural Generation

Only 18 developers shipped a Procedural Generation Political Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MEMORIAPOLIS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×20 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×3541 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 44 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 44 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Political Sim + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $8.8k → $12k → $6.1k → $18k → $31k → $5.2k (still earning) → $5.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Political Sim + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $111,488)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 45
Announced 44
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Political Sim, Procedural Generation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Colony Sim, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $28.00 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dialogue Heavy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $28.00 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 3,693 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Political Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DetectiveFair10 devs · median $9.9k · 15 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair10 devs · median $4.8k · 16 announced
  3. + IdlerFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 14 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $832 · 16 announced
  5. + Board GameFair18 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  6. + TabletopFair12 devs · median $600 · 12 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  8. + Sci-fiPoor odds24 devs · median $17k · 33 announced
  9. + FuturisticPoor odds16 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 50 announced
  11. + Cold WarPoor odds15 devs · median $9.9k · 23 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $9.6k · 83 announced

All 72 pairs on the Political Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Urbek City Builder older $18.99 1,830 89% 55k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,551) Fridus
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
The Shrouded Isle older $12.99 1,166 71% 35k $454k (exactly $454,390) Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau,… (Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau, Tanya Short)
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
Ultimate Arena older $7.99 811 83% 24k $194k (exactly $194,397) Triverske
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio
Rogue AI Simulator older $11.99 364 82% 11k $131k (exactly $130,931) Nerdook Productions
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
Political Arena · EA $14.99 69 73% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Wayside Press
Kiloton $6.99 103 96% 3.1k $22k (exactly $21,599) Jack Morehart
Observe · EA $7.99 74 91% 2.2k $18k (exactly $17,738) Kisotik Games
Life of an NPC · EA $14.99 21 52% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) Max Loh
Antiyoy $4.99 41 85% 1.2k $6.1k (exactly $6,138) yiotro

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.