Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation RTS?

RTS + Procedural Generation

Of 92 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 130 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.4k, ×2.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×1151 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 130 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 130 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 92
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $3.1k → $4.4k → $2.1k → $4.4k → $99k → $899 (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 92
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.4k (exactly $4,404)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,600)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137)
Developers, 2 yr 92
Released games 215
Announced 130
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Procedural Generation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 43,370 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.4k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 130 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Banished 2014 · $23M The Riftbreaker 2021 · $20M Going Medieval 2026 · $15M Kingdoms Reborn 2020 · EA · $5.3M Pioneers of Pagonia 2025 · $5.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Kingdoms Reborn · EA older $19.99 8,862 90% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) Earthshine
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Distant Worlds 2 older $49.99 2,653 72% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,978,704) CodeForce
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Space Rangers HD: A War Apart older $14.99 5,848 94% 175k $2.6M (exactly $2,629,846) SNK Games, Elemental Games, Katauri Int… (SNK Games, Elemental Games, Katauri Interactive)
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
Gold Gold Adventure Gold $24.99 907 70% 27k $680k (exactly $679,978) Can Can Can a Man
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.