Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Action RPG?

Action RPG + Procedural Generation

Of 148 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 352 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×1306 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 352 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 352 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 148
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $2.5k → $6.0k → $5.4k → $9.7k → $7.6k → $5.2k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 148
Bottom 30% $779 (exactly $779)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,389)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $49,775)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,955,802)
Developers, 2 yr 148
Released games 440
Announced 352
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Procedural Generation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Action Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 47,539 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 7 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 352 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Children of Morta older $21.99 18,213 88% 546k $12M (exactly $12,015,116) Dead Mage
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Tribes of Midgard older $19.99 17,465 76% 524k $10M (exactly $10,473,760) Norsfell
Moonlighter older $19.99 17,286 82% 519k $10M (exactly $10,366,414) Digital Sun
Cube World older $19.99 9,885 42% 297k $5.9M (exactly $5,928,034) Picroma
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Nobody Saves the World older $24.99 5,786 91% 174k $4.3M (exactly $4,337,764) Drinkbox Studios
Realm of Ink $24.99 5,007 90% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,748) Leap Studio
Heroes of Hammerwatch II $19.99 5,806 82% 174k $3.5M (exactly $3,481,858) Crackshell
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
Cinderia · EA $17.99 4,763 88% 143k $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591) MyACG Studio
Romestead · EA $13.99 4,660 76% 140k $2.0M (exactly $1,955,802) Beartwigs
KIBORG $24.99 1,221 84% 37k $915k (exactly $915,384) Sobaka Studio
Towerborne $24.99 1,057 69% 32k $792k (exactly $792,433) Stoic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.