Do I ship it?

GamesSailingSailing + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Sailing game?

Sailing + Procedural Generation

Only 10 developers shipped a Procedural Generation Sailing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Salt 2: Shores of Gold, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $27k, ×43 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2084 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 40 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 43.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 40 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sailing + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $3.9k (still earning) → $700 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sailing + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Median $27k (exactly $27,279)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 30
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Sailing, Procedural Generation
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 83% positive over 3,646 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $27k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 40 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sailing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + UnderwaterFair24 devs · median $3.9k · 30 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds16 devs · median $69k · 42 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds22 devs · median $45k · 73 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $38k · 40 announced
  7. + CraftingPoor odds26 devs · median $17k · 43 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds48 devs · median $15k · 119 announced
  9. + Action RPGPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 25 announced
  10. + Resource ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $8.5k · 55 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds24 devs · median $6.6k · 63 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $6.6k · 42 announced

All 47 pairs on the Sailing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Salt older $14.99 1,959 75% 59k $881k (exactly $880,962) Lavaboots Studios
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
King of Seas older $24.99 603 57% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) 3DClouds
Sail Forth older $19.99 604 92% 18k $362k (exactly $362,219) Festive Vector
Escape The Pacific · EA older $14.99 719 66% 22k $323k (exactly $323,334) Gamers4Gamers Team
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Winds Of Trade older $11.99 154 61% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,394) Rhombico Games
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
Dreadful River $9.99 58 72% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) SureAI
Pirates: Rogue's Fortune · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) NINPO Game Studio
The Honest Little Fisher $7.99 9 88% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) Kiene & Sohn
Pirate Twist · EA $4.67 5 100% 150 $700 (exactly $700) BTG Labs
Tailwind: Sleepcrafting $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) OneBrother

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.