Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation City Builder?

City Builder + Procedural Generation

Of 115 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 214 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2675 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 214 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 214 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $34k → $12k → $3.8k → $12k → $10k → $4.3k → $17k (still earning) → $6.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 115
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 25% $86k (exactly $86,342)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740)
Developers, 2 yr 115
Released games 266
Announced 214
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Procedural Generation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 36,530 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $86k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 214 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Terra Nil older $24.99 8,035 87% 241k $6.0M (exactly $6,023,840) Free Lives, Clockwork Acorn
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Gold Gold Adventure Gold $24.99 907 70% 27k $680k (exactly $679,978) Can Can Can a Man
Tower Factory · EA $14.99 1,220 89% 37k $549k (exactly $548,634) Gius Caminiti
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.