Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Online Co-Op Procedural Generation game?

Online Co-Op + Procedural Generation

Of 220 developers who shipped an Online Co-Op Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 562 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.3k, ×3.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×1678 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 562 games are announced against 147 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 562 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 220
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $117k → $12k → $67k → $4.1k → $33k → $19k → $4.8k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 220
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Median $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $85,443)
Top 5% $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984)
Developers, 2 yr 220
Released games 400
Announced 562
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op, Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Exploration
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 726,758 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.3k, 1 in 4 over $85k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 82 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 562 games are announced against 147 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Core Keeper older $19.99 50,066 92% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,024,580) Pugstorm
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Nightingale · EA older $29.99 15,338 66% 460k $14M (exactly $13,799,599) Inflexion Games
Backrooms: Escape Together · EA older $9.99 42,276 88% 1.3M $13M (exactly $12,670,117) Triiodide Studios
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.