Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Procedural Generation

Of 62 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.2k, ×9.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 147 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 147 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $1.2k → $66k → $21k → $50k → $6.2k → $1.7k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $6.2k (exactly $6,232)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,978)
Top 5% $446k (exactly $446,177)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 177
Announced 147
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Procedural Generation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Strategy RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 10,946 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.2k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Wildermyth older $24.99 16,316 94% 489k $12M (exactly $12,232,105) Worldwalker Games LLC
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
Invisible, Inc. older $19.99 5,096 91% 153k $3.1M (exactly $3,056,071) Klei Entertainment
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
Vivid World $19.99 591 88% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
Seer's Gambit $14.99 490 76% 15k $220k (exactly $220,353) Unleash The Giraffe
Astral Throne $19.99 270 80% 8.1k $162k (exactly $161,919) Zero Sun Games
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.