Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation JRPG?

JRPG + Procedural Generation

Of 25 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3209 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 27 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 27 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $125k → $21k → $92k → $25k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,359)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 68
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Procedural Generation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 12,516 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M Aethermancer 2025 · EA · $2.0M Star Renegades 2020 · $2.0M Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend 2022 · EA · $1.8M Cuisineer 2023 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
Star Renegades older $24.99 2,673 82% 80k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,948) Massive Damage, Inc.
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
Cuisineer older $24.99 1,820 76% 55k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,454) BattleBrew Productions
Shadow Corridor 2 雨ノ四葩 older $18.99 853 87% 26k $486k (exactly $485,954) Space Onigiri Game LLC
Dungeon Drafters older $24.99 563 76% 17k $422k (exactly $422,081) Manalith Studios
One Way Heroics older $3.49 3,503 94% 105k $367k (exactly $366,764) Smoking WOLF
Tyrant's Blessing older $19.99 291 72% 8.7k $175k (exactly $174,513) Mercury Game Studio
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
Wander Stars $24.99 148 92% 4.4k $111k (exactly $110,956) Paper Castle Games
Splintered $9.99 307 88% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,008) dotMake Studios
Dungeon Antiqua $6.99 389 90% 12k $82k (exactly $81,573) Shiromofu Factory
Lords of Ravage $9.99 138 66% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Synthetic Domain
Voidsayer $14.99 91 69% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Pavel Auseitasau
Sin Slayers: Reign of The 8th $19.99 59 64% 1.8k $35k (exactly $35,382) Goonswarm Games
HoloDungeon: Koyori vs HollowLive in Honsha Tower · EA $12.99 84 72% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) VELUX STUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.