Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Procedural Generation

Of 34 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×16 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×1109 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 72 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 72 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $7.8k → $9.4k → $24k → $4.7k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,821)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,476)
Top 5% $527k (exactly $526,573)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 65
Announced 72
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim, Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 8,044 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Wonderia · EA $13.99 276 80% 8.3k $116k (exactly $115,837) Rock&Dash
Border Town $14.99 253 77% 7.6k $114k (exactly $113,774) GoHoGames
Black Hole Fishing $5.99 571 88% 17k $103k (exactly $102,609) SDG Games
Creatura older $14.99 214 67% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Koksny.com
Another Farm Roguelike: Rebirth $6.99 433 69% 13k $91k (exactly $90,800) Zabbo Games
Koi Farm older $2.99 907 94% 27k $81k (exactly $81,358) Job Talle, 3xBlast
Global Farmer $19.99 133 45% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Thera Bytes GmbH
Descending The Woods · EA older $18.99 111 47% 3.3k $63k (exactly $63,237) AIONWARE LTD
Call of Boba · EA $12.99 125 67% 3.8k $49k (exactly $48,712) Tomatoast, Tomatoast
TerraForge $8.99 113 78% 3.4k $30k (exactly $30,476) OverjoyedGameDevs
Node Farm $11.99 75 81% 2.3k $27k (exactly $26,978) ByerN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.