Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Procedural Generation

Only 13 developers shipped a Procedural Generation Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Horsey Game, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×7.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1389 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 60 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 60 announced, ×7.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $5.7k → $1.2k → $3.1k → $26k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,198)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,258)
Top 5% $872k (exactly $872,427)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 54
Announced 60
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Procedural Generation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 3,317 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $870k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fabledom older $20.99 6,772 85% 203k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,328) Grenaa Games
One Hour One Life older $14.99 3,988 79% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) Jason Rohrer
Urbek City Builder older $18.99 1,830 89% 55k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,551) Fridus
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Global Farmer $19.99 133 45% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Thera Bytes GmbH
Goblin Camp $19.99 118 76% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) Korppi Games Ltd
Desktop Farm older $2.99 612 74% 18k $55k (exactly $54,896) 3dm_live_wallpapers
Industrial Petting · EA older $19.99 82 90% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Another Yeti
Vilmonic older $14.99 69 69% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Bludgeonsoft
Deck of Harvest · EA $11.99 73 67% 2.2k $26k (exactly $26,258) GameFarmer, Pone Games
Exile $19.99 13 61% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) JD7 Games
Sigma World Online $4.99 37 70% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) Crematorium of Time
Gardener: Master of Trees and Flowers · EA $19.99 7 71% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Koksny.com
Fungal Colony Sim 2 $7.99 13 61% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Skylor Beck
Apoikia · EA $24.99 4 50% 120 $3.0k (exactly $2,999) Charlie
Planeturem $6.99 8 62% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) jamiebrn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.