Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Procedural Generation

Only 16 developers shipped a Procedural Generation Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Windblown, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.2k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $6.7M, ×14309 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 35 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 35 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $80k → $45k → $9.3k
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $6.2k (exactly $6,203)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,191)
Top 5% $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 56
Announced 35
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania, Procedural Generation
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 10,144 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $6.2k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $6.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Rogue Legacy 2 older $24.99 14,238 90% 427k $11M (exactly $10,674,229) Cellar Door Games
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Vagante older $14.99 4,118 90% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) Nuke Nine
ScourgeBringer older $16.99 2,642 87% 79k $1.3M (exactly $1,346,627) Flying Oak Games, E-Studio
Patch Quest older $14.99 2,058 94% 62k $925k (exactly $925,483) Lychee Game Labs
Chasm older $19.99 1,434 75% 43k $860k (exactly $859,970) Bit Kid, Inc.
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
Abyss Odyssey older $14.99 1,270 67% 38k $571k (exactly $571,119) ACE Team
Dunjungle $14.99 692 96% 21k $311k (exactly $311,192) Bruno Bombardi
Aura of Worlds $14.99 101 96% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) Cognitive Forge
Randomice $12.99 98 94% 2.9k $38k (exactly $38,191) Videoludid
The Prisoning: Fletcher's Quest $14.99 53 88% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Elden Pixels
Rusty Rangers $14.99 27 88% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Fantastica!
CorgiSpace $4.99 62 96% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) Adam Saltsman
Speedollama $8.99 23 95% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) Chaosmonger Studio
Virballs $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Bolder Games, Chimera Studios
Nauts $8.99 10 100% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Jorge A. García González, Carlos Álvare… (Jorge A. García González, Carlos Álvarez-Nava González)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.