Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation

Of 2,188 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,211 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×1045 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 4,211 games are announced against 1,331 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 4,211 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,188
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $2.8k → $2.9k → $2.1k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,188
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,994)
Top 5% $497k (exactly $496,552)
Developers, 2 yr 2,188
Released games 5,855
Announced 4,211
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 974,496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 992 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,211 games are announced against 1,331 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Procedural Generation

162 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Action Roguelike + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.3k 573 devs
  2. Procedural Generation + Multiple Endings Poor odds $1.3k 84 devs
  3. Combat + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.3k 407 devs
  4. Procedural Generation + Dynamic Narration Poor odds $1.2k 22 devs
  5. Survival Horror + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.2k 133 devs
  6. Hunting + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.2k 12 devs
  7. Action + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.0k 1,022 devs
  8. Sports + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.0k 46 devs
  9. Driving + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.0k 42 devs
  10. Swordplay + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.0k 16 devs
  11. Real Time Tactics + Procedural Generation Poor odds $1.0k 74 devs
  12. Shooter + Procedural Generation Poor odds $987 250 devs
  13. Physics + Procedural Generation Poor odds $960 223 devs
  14. PvE + Procedural Generation Poor odds $899 439 devs
  15. PvP + Procedural Generation Poor odds $899 98 devs
  16. Procedural Generation + Twin Stick Shooter Poor odds $899 81 devs
  17. Local Co-Op + Procedural Generation Poor odds $899 66 devs
  18. Third-Person Shooter + Procedural Generation Poor odds $899 36 devs
  19. Combat Racing + Procedural Generation Poor odds $899 12 devs
  20. Procedural Generation + Bullet Hell Poor odds $898 270 devs
  21. Procedural Generation + Tabletop Poor odds $898 50 devs
  22. Procedural Generation + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $898 30 devs
  23. Co-op Campaign + Procedural Generation Poor odds $898 13 devs
  24. Collectathon + Procedural Generation Poor odds $838 73 devs
  25. Procedural Generation + Incremental Poor odds $836 103 devs
  26. Party Game + Procedural Generation Poor odds $809 27 devs
  27. Split Screen + Procedural Generation Poor odds $809 20 devs
  28. 3D Fighter + Procedural Generation Poor odds $809 10 devs
  29. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Procedural Generation Poor odds $807 20 devs
  30. Procedural Generation + Match 3 Poor odds $748 14 devs
  31. Procedural Generation + Puzzle Poor odds $629 270 devs
  32. Procedural Generation + Shoot 'Em Up Poor odds $599 101 devs
  33. Racing + Procedural Generation Poor odds $599 50 devs
  34. Procedural Generation + Top-Down Shooter Poor odds $598 154 devs
  35. Parkour + Procedural Generation Poor odds $479 34 devs
  36. Procedural Generation + Platformer Poor odds $478 151 devs
  37. Procedural Generation + 2D Platformer Poor odds $449 137 devs
  38. Flight + Procedural Generation Poor odds $360 39 devs
  39. Procedural Generation + Solitaire Poor odds $359 15 devs
  40. 6DOF + Procedural Generation Poor odds $359 14 devs
  41. Arena Shooter + Procedural Generation Poor odds $300 61 devs
  42. Local Multiplayer + Procedural Generation Poor odds $300 44 devs
  43. Procedural Generation + Rhythm Poor odds $299 28 devs
  44. Procedural Generation + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $269 23 devs
  45. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Procedural Generation Poor odds $269 18 devs
  46. Bullet Time + Procedural Generation Poor odds $180 31 devs
  47. Real-Time + Procedural Generation Dead $11k 9 devs
  48. Procedural Generation + Cooking Dead $3.0k 9 devs
  49. Spectacle fighter + Procedural Generation Dead $1.8k 8 devs
  50. Tanks + Procedural Generation Dead $450 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M RimWorld 2018 · $219M Stellaris 2016 · $210M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth older $14.99 415,060 96% 12M $187M (exactly $186,652,482) Nicalis, Inc., Edmund McMillen
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Tiny Glade $14.99 22,642 97% 679k $10M (exactly $10,182,107) Pounce Light

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.