Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Procedural Generation

Only 16 developers shipped a Procedural Generation Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mortal Sin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $4.1M, ×6665 the market median. Revenue is up 1025% on the market; 49 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 1025% on the market, 49 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $1.0k → $0 → $1.5k → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,691)
Top 5% $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 44
Announced 49
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.90

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1025% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Procedural Generation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$9.90 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.90.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 7,382 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $4.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
City of Brass older $19.99 758 77% 23k $455k (exactly $454,573) Uppercut Games Pty Ltd
Ed-0: Zombie Uprising older $29.99 211 72% 6.3k $190k (exactly $189,837) LANCARSE
Darkblade Ascent $10.99 551 80% 17k $182k (exactly $181,665) PST Games
Knights Within · EA older $17.99 250 95% 7.5k $135k (exactly $134,925) Indecision Labs
Saber Fight VR older $14.99 162 65% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Saber Fight VR
Choice Chamber older $9.99 123 89% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) Studio Bean
Dungeoneers older $19.99 58 82% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) Rogue Sword: Strategy & Adventure G… (Rogue Sword: Strategy & Adventure Games)
Soul Scathe older $19.99 56 78% 1.7k $34k (exactly $33,583) Bluelight Construct
Crossings $9.99 29 75% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Neat Corporation
Dungeons and Warbands · EA $14.99 16 56% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Omer Erenturk
Adventurer's Gambit: Dungeons of Fortune $12.99 11 81% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) Astana Games
Ruins of Endoth · EA $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) KLG Games Ltd
懒人也江湖 · EA $4.99 7 57% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) 恒睿游戏
Ezmeralda · EA $4.99 5 20% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Leifyy
COLD BOOT $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) DIG Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.