Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Hunting game?

Hunting + Procedural Generation

Only 12 developers shipped a Procedural Generation Hunting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Survivalist: Invisible Strain, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2299 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 15 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Hunting + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $69,704)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 33
Announced 15
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Procedural Generation
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 4,487 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $69k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Survivalists older $24.99 8,116 76% 243k $6.1M (exactly $6,084,565) Team17
Rising World · EA older $14.99 5,310 85% 159k $2.4M (exactly $2,387,907) JIW-Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
Badiya: Desert Survival · EA older $19.99 284 50% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) Semaphore
Nature & Life - Drunk On Nectar $14.99 263 87% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) Venugopalan Sreedharan
Hunters Inc $14.99 155 56% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) WYLDERZONE
PostCollapse older $7.99 127 56% 3.8k $30k (exactly $30,442) Ambiera
Nira older $9.99 82 54% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) Baseline Games
On My Own older $7.99 94 70% 2.8k $23k (exactly $22,532) Beach Interactive, Close Studios
Fallen Angel: Hell Survival $19.99 15 86% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Strongfinger
Ancient Savo $6.99 15 93% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Erkka Lehmus
Fish Box $4.99 8 62% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) DoXMo
Hunting Pack $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Vaeril Games
A Fishy RPG $0.99 11 45% 330 $327 (exactly $327) LGV
Runimals $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Mighty Marv Games
Treasure Hunt $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Voidman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.