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Should I ship a Procedural Generation Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Procedural Generation + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 30 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 95 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $15k, ×33 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 95 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $3.9k (exactly $3,897) |
| Top 5% | $16k (exactly $15,827) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 30 |
| Released games | 109 |
| Announced | 95 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Procedural Generation
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Procedural Generation, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Dialogue Heavy
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 2,470 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SnowFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + DetectiveFair
- + Word GameFair
- + TypingFair
- + IdlerFair
- + LogicFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
Comparable games
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M 
FTL: Faster Than Light 2012 · $19M 
Road 96 🛣️ 2021 · $13M 
《蜀山：初章》买断版 2022 · $4.3M 
Pixel Piracy 2014 · $2.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal | older | $19.99 | 190,184 56% | 5.7M | $114M (exactly $114,053,345) | 鬼谷工作室 |
| | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
| | Road 96 🛣️ | older | $19.96 | 22,118 91% | 664k | $13M (exactly $13,244,258) | Digixart |
| | 《蜀山：初章》买断版 | older | $24.99 | 5,772 74% | 173k | $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) | 重楼工作室 |
| | Pixel Piracy | older | $14.99 | 5,713 65% | 171k | $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) | Vitali Kirpu |
 | CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience | older | $19.99 | 2,596 91% | 78k | $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) | Delve Interactive |
 | Lucky Tower Ultimate | $14.99 | 2,281 94% | 68k | $1.0M (exactly $1,025,766) | Studio Seufz | |
 | UNDER the SAND - a road trip simulator | older | $19.99 | 1,556 78% | 47k | $933k (exactly $933,133) | IndieMax |
 | Pathway | older | $15.99 | 1,908 76% | 57k | $915k (exactly $915,268) | Robotality |
 | Abandon Ship | older | $24.99 | 1,151 71% | 35k | $863k (exactly $862,905) | Fireblade Software |
 | SKY THE SCRAPER | $11.99 | 44 100% | 1.3k | $16k (exactly $15,827) | Ryo Kobuchi | |
 | Natural Unintelligence: Zueirama 2 | · EA | $7.99 | 28 78% | 840 | $6.7k (exactly $6,712) | Memes Games |
 | _turing | $7.99 | 26 61% | 780 | $6.2k (exactly $6,232) | 竹関工房 | |
 | Roots of Harmony | $8.00 | 22 100% | 660 | $5.3k (exactly $5,280) | Guillaume Beaumel | |
 | Primage | · EA | $6.99 | 21 76% | 630 | $4.4k (exactly $4,404) | Fadzior |
 | RolemIAster | · EA | $5.99 | 23 56% | 690 | $4.1k (exactly $4,133) | ABAFE |
 | Octopus Goulash | $12.99 | 10 70% | 300 | $3.9k (exactly $3,897) | Alessio Serenellini | |
 | One Way Mirror: AI | · EA | $14.99 | 7 85% | 210 | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) | Pigi the Wizard and the Feral Yellow Sh… (Pigi the Wizard and the Feral Yellow Sheep) |
 | Boundless AI Fantasy | $9.99 | 8 87% | 240 | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) | João Vitor Andrioli de Souza |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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