Do I ship it?

Games › Collectathon › Collectathon + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Procedural Generation game?

Collectathon + Procedural Generation

Of 73 developers who shipped a Collectathon Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×265 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 100 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 100 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $897 → $2.7k → $1.8k → $2.7k → $899 → $898 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $6.2k (exactly $6,203)
Top 5% $126k (exactly $125,898)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 174
Announced 100
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Procedural Generation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 12,173 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $840, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M Cozy Grove 2021 · $3.4M Lunch Lady 2021 · $1.5M Siralim Ultimate 2021 · $1.3M Soundfall 2022 · $896k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Cozy Grove older $14.99 7,512 89% 225k $3.4M (exactly $3,378,146) Spry Fox
Lunch Lady older $4.99 9,722 86% 292k $1.5M (exactly $1,455,383) Manic Mice
Siralim Ultimate older $19.99 2,145 92% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,356) Thylacine Studios
Soundfall older $29.99 996 73% 30k $896k (exactly $896,101) Drastic Games
Astronomics · EA $19.99 706 89% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Numizmatic
Siralim 3 older $14.99 881 94% 26k $396k (exactly $396,186) Thylacine Studios
Night Raider older $5.99 1,908 85% 57k $343k (exactly $342,868) TSUKUYOMIC
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
Samurai Bringer older $9.99 1,012 87% 30k $303k (exactly $303,296) ALPHAWING Inc.
Paranormal Cleanup $9.99 961 88% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Manic Mice
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
Agrivore: Incremental Farming $6.99 494 70% 15k $104k (exactly $103,592) verty
Cumrooms $11.99 166 86% 5.0k $60k (exactly $59,710) Moon Loom Studio
Gold Miner:Classic Edition $3.99 350 82% 11k $42k (exactly $41,895) GameRival
TerraForge $8.99 113 78% 3.4k $30k (exactly $30,476) OverjoyedGameDevs
Chronomon · EA $9.99 79 83% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Stone Golem Studios
神魔山海经 Gods Monster $11.99 57 59% 1.7k $21k (exactly $20,503) 红尘背包客

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.