Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Procedural Generation game?

Physics + Procedural Generation

Of 223 developers who shipped a Physics Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 413 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1389 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 413 games are announced against 148 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 413 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 223
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $718 → $898 → $4.1k → $1.5k → $1.8k → $479 (still earning) → $960 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 223
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $960 (exactly $960)
Top 25% $9.1k (exactly $9,109)
Top 5% $872k (exactly $872,427)
Developers, 2 yr 223
Released games 544
Announced 413
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.80

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Procedural Generation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$6.80 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.80.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 707,614 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $960, 1 in 4 over $9.1k, 1 in 20 over $870k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 84 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 413 games are announced against 148 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M PEAK 2025 · $72M Hardspace: Shipbreaker 2022 · $20M Content Warning 2024 · $17M Descenders 2019 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Dome Keeper older $17.99 18,976 92% 569k $10M (exactly $10,241,347) Bippinbits
Wobbledogs older $19.99 13,770 98% 413k $8.3M (exactly $8,257,869) Animal Uprising
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
YAPYAP $9.99 8,385 83% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) Maison Bap
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Burglin' Gnomes $9.99 4,635 83% 139k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) Fobri

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.