Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Top-Down Shooter?

Procedural Generation + Top-Down Shooter

Of 154 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 278 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×521 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 278 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 278 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 154
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.9k → $1.2k → $1.3k → $2.1k → $898 → $418 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 154
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $248k (exactly $247,552)
Developers, 2 yr 154
Released games 421
Announced 278
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation, Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 66,188 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 278 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Killsquad older $29.99 2,839 71% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,248) Novarama
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
Black Skylands older $19.99 2,849 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,545) Hungry Couch Games
UBERMOSH older $4.99 8,757 92% 263k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,923) Walter Machado
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK
FatalZone $6.99 2,125 66% 64k $446k (exactly $445,612) Midhard Games
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design
Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival $9.99 826 77% 25k $248k (exactly $247,552) RetroStyle Games
Enter the Chronosphere · EA $14.99 420 94% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) Effort Star
Sodaman $7.99 738 78% 22k $177k (exactly $176,899) Tape Corps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.