Do I ship it?

Games › Music-Based Procedural Generation › Music-Based Procedural Generation + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music-Based Procedural Generation Procedural Generation game?

Music-Based Procedural Generation + Procedural Generation

Only 18 developers shipped a Music-Based Procedural Generation Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rhythm Storm, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 80% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Music-Based Procedural Generation + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.8k → $2.2k → $299 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Music-Based Procedural Generation + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 5% $26k (exactly $25,774)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 70
Announced 30
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Music-Based Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Music-Based Procedural Generation, Procedural Generation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Rhythm, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 161 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $270, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Music-Based Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationFair10 devs · median $18k · 8 announced
  2. + FantasyFair8 devs · median $1.0k · 9 announced
  3. + MusicFair44 devs · median $809 · 65 announced
  4. + RhythmLong shot72 devs · median $300 · 90 announced
  5. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $5.7k · 14 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds12 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds21 devs · median $1.2k · 28 announced
  8. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds11 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + ExplorationPoor odds11 devs · median $1.1k · 25 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds8 devs · median $1.0k · 16 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds15 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $899 · 14 announced

All 32 pairs on the Music-Based Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

AudioSurf 2008 · $2.7M Audiosurf 2 2015 · $2.4M Melody's Escape 2016 · $1.3M Soundfall 2022 · $896k Beat Hazard 2 2019 · $795k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AudioSurf older $9.99 8,901 95% 267k $2.7M (exactly $2,667,630) Dylan Fitterer
Audiosurf 2 older $14.99 5,364 82% 161k $2.4M (exactly $2,412,191) Dylan Fitterer
Melody's Escape older $9.99 4,336 92% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,299,499) Icetesy
Soundfall older $29.99 996 73% 30k $896k (exactly $896,101) Drastic Games
Beat Hazard 2 older $18.99 1,396 89% 42k $795k (exactly $795,301) Cold Beam Games
Symphony older $4.99 833 86% 25k $125k (exactly $124,700) Empty Clip Studios
Beat Aim - Rhythm FPS Trainer · EA older $14.99 210 89% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Kamyker
Hyperspace Invaders II: Pixel Edition older $4.99 326 82% 9.8k $49k (exactly $48,802) Entity Medialab
TERRORHYTHM (TRRT) - Rhythm driven action beat 'em up! older $19.99 47 72% 1.4k $28k (exactly $28,186) EvilCoGames
Rhythm Storm $9.99 86 91% 2.6k $26k (exactly $25,774) Radiangames
Melody Friends $7.99 20 100% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) WINE GL
Monster Path $5.99 16 75% 480 $2.9k (exactly $2,875) The Indie Accord
Symphorix · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) OnTriggerJoy
BeatChip '95 $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Jack The Robot Games
Rhythm Racer · EA $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Elusive Byte
Mandala $1.99 6 100% 180 $358 (exactly $358) Divora
T-Drum $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) LV Studio
Final Forge · EA $2.99 3 33% 90 $269 (exactly $269) OPS Game Studio
Scooter Slayer $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Kulix Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.