Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Procedural Generation

Of 573 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,135 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×1230 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 1,135 games are announced against 339 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 1,135 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 573
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.7k → $3.2k → $2.7k → $2.0k → $2.3k → $897 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 573
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,870)
Top 5% $584k (exactly $584,108)
Developers, 2 yr 573
Released games 1,412
Announced 1,135
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Procedural Generation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 774,509 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 258 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,135 games are announced against 339 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth older $14.99 415,060 96% 12M $187M (exactly $186,652,482) Nicalis, Inc., Edmund McMillen
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
BlazBlue Entropy Effect older $19.99 30,410 94% 912k $18M (exactly $18,236,877) 91Act
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Sephiria $17.99 11,582 94% 347k $6.3M (exactly $6,250,805) TEAM HORAY
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Realm of Ink $24.99 5,007 90% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,748) Leap Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.