Do I ship it?

GamesReal-TimeReal-Time + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Procedural Generation

Only 9 developers shipped a Procedural Generation Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Endzone 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $11k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 17.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 11 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $11k → $86k
Outcomes for Real-Time + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $9.0k (exactly $8,992)
Median $11k (exactly $11,242)
Top 25% $86k (exactly $86,342)
Top 5% $804k (exactly $804,332)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 41
Announced 11
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Procedural Generation
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 13,764 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.0k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $86k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.0k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Gord older $49.99 809 53% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,213,257) Covenant.dev
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Nevergrind Online older $15.99 1,221 86% 37k $586k (exactly $585,714) Neverworks Games
Dice Legacy older $14.99 892 67% 27k $401k (exactly $401,132) DESTINYbit
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Cosmodread older $14.99 391 91% 12k $176k (exactly $175,833) White Door Games
Drox Operative 2 older $19.99 275 89% 8.3k $165k (exactly $164,918) Soldak Entertainment
Zombasite older $19.99 194 76% 5.8k $116k (exactly $116,342) Soldak Entertainment
Din's Legacy older $19.99 185 77% 5.6k $111k (exactly $110,944) Soldak Entertainment
Outside the Blocks $14.99 192 87% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Michał Kubas
Stardust Exile $14.99 44 70% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Apseren
Fleetbreakers · EA $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Last Keep
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps
Eclipse Breaker $11.99 25 96% 750 $9.0k (exactly $8,992) Lunar Workshop, Jorge Rodriguez
Space Sim Tycoon $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SuperChicken Productions LLC
AI PAINTER: Painting Simulator $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Magic Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.