Do I ship it?

Games6DOF6DOF + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation 6DOF game?

6DOF + Procedural Generation

Only 14 developers shipped a Procedural Generation 6DOF game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Desecrators, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 75% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
6DOF + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $178 → $15k → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 6DOF + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,507)
Top 5% $147k (exactly $147,052)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 52
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

6DOF
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
6DOF, Procedural Generation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 545 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $360, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

6DOF with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  2. + TacticalFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  3. + RobotsFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced
  4. + WarFair11 devs · median $1.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Dark FantasyFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $958 · 39 announced
  7. + RhythmPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds8 devs · median $9.6k · 17 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds10 devs · median $7.6k · 17 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds13 devs · median $3.6k · 8 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds32 devs · median $3.6k · 69 announced

All 90 pairs on the 6DOF page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PANELKI older $7.99 2,404 86% 72k $576k (exactly $576,239) Alexander Gromyko
Sublevel Zero Redux older $14.99 448 85% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) Sigtrap
Desecrators $14.99 327 96% 9.8k $147k (exactly $147,052) Woodhound
Archean · EA older $19.99 241 87% 7.2k $145k (exactly $144,528) batcholi, FloDKSM
Space Docker VR older $14.99 143 95% 4.3k $64k (exactly $64,307) Cat Commandos
Polynomial 2 - Universe of the Music · EA older $11.99 133 79% 4.0k $48k (exactly $47,840) Dmytry Lavrov, Alexey Lavrov
NeonXSZ older $9.99 92 75% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,572) Intravenous Software
Uberlaufer · EA older $10.00 74 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,200) Think Tank Decoy Software LLC
MarineVerse Sailing Club older $29.99 24 70% 720 $22k (exactly $21,593) MarineVerse
UNDER the WATER - an ocean survival game older $9.99 50 34% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) UTW Team
Death Horizon: Cyberfusion $7.99 61 67% 1.8k $15k (exactly $14,622) Horizon Lab
Wrath and Retribution $9.99 23 91% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Mad Vulture Games
Blood Night · EA $1.99 109 95% 3.3k $6.5k (exactly $6,507) Team
Exosky $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Elevons, LLC
Wings Of Rage $15.99 3 100% 90 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Cyrille Fontaine
BeaconBound $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) SMAR Studio
Dark Avos $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) V1S
Cyber Tunnel Escape $3.99 2 0% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Li Zekang
Sporeborn Dark $0.99 6 83% 180 $178 (exactly $178) ValiantLight

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.