Do I ship it?

Games › Sports › Sports + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Sports game?

Sports + Procedural Generation

Of 46 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×446 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 61 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 61 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $1.8k → $22k → $5.2k → $1.0k → $987 → $3.4k (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,712)
Top 5% $280k (exactly $280,388)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 135
Announced 61
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Physics, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,719 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Descenders 2019 · $15M Superflight 2017 · $991k OlliOlli World 2022 · $539k Descenders Next 2025 · EA · $350k SNØ: Ultimate Freeriding 2025 · $331k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
Superflight older $2.99 11,047 96% 331k $991k (exactly $990,916) GrizzlyGames
OlliOlli World older $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Roll7
Descenders Next · EA $29.99 389 79% 12k $350k (exactly $349,983) RageSquid
SNØ: Ultimate Freeriding $11.99 920 96% 28k $331k (exactly $330,924) Studio Gauntlet
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
Intergalactic Fishing older $14.99 379 95% 11k $170k (exactly $170,436) Boat Anchor Games
80's OVERDRIVE older $9.99 502 77% 15k $150k (exactly $150,449) Insane Code
Rush Rally Origins older $14.99 306 95% 9.2k $138k (exactly $137,608) Brownmonster Limited
Lake of Creatures $12.49 354 92% 11k $133k (exactly $132,644) ANTENNA GAMES
Pound for Pound: MMA Promotion Simulator · EA $19.99 136 96% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Pound for Pound Games
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal
Stardust Skate $2.99 299 98% 9.0k $27k (exactly $26,820) VchiBan, Aetha
War Room Football $9.99 71 94% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Tanish Jagtap
This Is Golf $4.99 86 94% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,874) SaltySeedGames
Octohill Ski Tycoon $8.99 41 85% 1.2k $11k (exactly $11,058) DeuxBaguettes

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.