Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Procedural Generation game?

PvP + Procedural Generation

Of 98 developers who shipped a PvP Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 262 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 262 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 262 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 98
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $1.8k → $2.4k → $809 → $4.3k → $899 → $1.8k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 98
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,668)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320)
Developers, 2 yr 98
Released games 305
Announced 262
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Procedural Generation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, PvE, Online Co-Op
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 27,007 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 262 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Train 2020 · $15M Spelunky 2 2020 · $12M Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M Monster Train 2 2025 · $6.5M Kingdoms Reborn 2020 · EA · $5.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Kingdoms Reborn · EA older $19.99 8,862 90% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) Earthshine
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
Hero's Hour older $17.99 4,643 79% 139k $2.5M (exactly $2,505,827) Benjamin "ThingOnItsOwn" Hauer
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
It Has My Face $9.99 608 88% 18k $182k (exactly $182,218) NightByte Games
Glorious Companions $19.99 182 61% 5.5k $109k (exactly $109,145) Ancient Forge
Summer Islands $14.99 190 81% 5.7k $85k (exactly $85,443) Marttalin Games
Trolddom $9.99 204 94% 6.1k $61k (exactly $61,139) Plant Based Games
Mayhemers · EA $6.99 154 84% 4.6k $32k (exactly $32,294) Anigtas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.