Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Bullet Hell?

Procedural Generation + Bullet Hell

Of 270 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 386 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×301 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 386 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 386 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 270
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $2.5k → $1.7k → $1.6k → $299 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 270
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,641)
Top 5% $143k (exactly $142,941)
Developers, 2 yr 270
Released games 652
Announced 386
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation, Bullet Hell; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 84,521 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 140 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 386 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
The Binding of Isaac older $4.99 49,208 94% 1.5M $7.4M (exactly $7,366,438) Edmund McMillen, Florian Himsl
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
Heroes of Hammerwatch older $14.99 7,519 87% 226k $3.4M (exactly $3,381,294) Crackshell
Dead Estate older $14.99 5,778 95% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,598,367) Milkbar Lads
Killsquad older $29.99 2,839 71% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,248) Novarama
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
Neon Abyss 2 · EA $19.99 1,968 68% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,210) Veewo Games
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK
FatalZone $6.99 2,125 66% 64k $446k (exactly $445,612) Midhard Games
Funguys Swarm $9.99 1,114 89% 33k $334k (exactly $333,866) Stairway Games
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.