Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Procedural Generation

Of 36 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 81 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 81 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $117k → $8.6k → $1.8k → $599 → $4.2k → $899 → $31k (still earning) → $59 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $43,171)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 103
Announced 81
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Procedural Generation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 9,438 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Remnant: From the Ashes 2019 · $57M Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M Phoenix Point 2020 · $4.0M LORT 2026 · EA · $1.8M Killer Bean 2026 · EA · $1.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
LORT · EA $14.99 3,933 77% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,670) Big Distraction
Killer Bean · EA $14.99 2,272 73% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) Killer Bean Studios LLC
KIBORG $24.99 1,221 84% 37k $915k (exactly $915,384) Sobaka Studio
Plains of Pain · EA older $19.99 956 82% 29k $573k (exactly $573,313) Cobra Byte Digital
Fictorum older $9.99 1,034 78% 31k $310k (exactly $309,890) Scraping Bottom Games
C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM) $6.99 777 87% 23k $163k (exactly $162,937) BRAIN DOES (NOT) WORK
Block Fortress 2 $19.99 264 81% 7.9k $158k (exactly $158,321) Foursaken Media
Warden's Will $14.99 304 70% 9.1k $137k (exactly $136,709) ELYZIO
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev
Cowboy 3030 $14.99 96 87% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) Soy Boy Games
The Last Citadel $14.99 70 85% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,479) Honest Demon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.