Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror game?

Horror

Of 4,954 developers who shipped a Horror game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,850 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×624 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 7,850 games are announced against 2,916 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 7,850 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 4,954
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $2.5k → $2.7k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.2k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 4,954
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,992)
Top 5% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Developers, 2 yr 4,954
Released games 15,221
Announced 7,850
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,343,421 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 2,907 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,850 games are announced against 2,916 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Horror

157 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Submarine + Horror Poor odds $2.8k 18 devs
  2. RPG + Horror Poor odds $2.7k 595 devs
  3. Twin Stick Shooter + Horror Poor odds $2.7k 22 devs
  4. Turn-Based Tactics + Horror Poor odds $2.7k 75 devs
  5. Deckbuilding + Horror Poor odds $2.7k 66 devs
  6. Visual Novel + Horror Poor odds $2.7k 479 devs
  7. Boomer Shooter + Horror Poor odds $2.6k 99 devs
  8. Idler + Horror Poor odds $2.5k 73 devs
  9. JRPG + Horror Poor odds $2.5k 70 devs
  10. Local Multiplayer + Horror Poor odds $2.4k 48 devs
  11. 2D Fighter + Horror Poor odds $2.4k 13 devs
  12. Turn-Based Strategy + Horror Poor odds $2.4k 69 devs
  13. Level Editor + Horror Poor odds $2.3k 16 devs
  14. Bullet Time + Horror Poor odds $2.2k 19 devs
  15. Third-Person Shooter + Horror Poor odds $2.1k 148 devs
  16. Gambling + Horror Poor odds $2.1k 48 devs
  17. Driving + Horror Poor odds $2.0k 53 devs
  18. Choices Matter + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 751 devs
  19. Open World + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 246 devs
  20. Immersive Sim + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 545 devs
  21. Procedural Generation + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 255 devs
  22. Life Sim + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 116 devs
  23. Simulation + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 1,129 devs
  24. Inventory Management + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 145 devs
  25. Point & Click + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 400 devs
  26. Shooter + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 593 devs
  27. Roguelike + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 264 devs
  28. PvP + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 153 devs
  29. Multiple Endings + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 1,081 devs
  30. Action Roguelike + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 219 devs
  31. Action RPG + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 176 devs
  32. Card Battler + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 43 devs
  33. Mining + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 22 devs
  34. Exploration + Horror Poor odds $1.7k 2,277 devs
  35. Physics + Horror Poor odds $1.7k 291 devs
  36. Resource Management + Horror Poor odds $1.6k 191 devs
  37. Adventure + Horror Poor odds $1.6k 3,260 devs
  38. Interactive Fiction + Horror Poor odds $1.5k 501 devs
  39. Survival Horror + Horror Poor odds $1.5k 1,612 devs
  40. Looter Shooter + Horror Poor odds $1.5k 34 devs
  41. Top-Down Shooter + Horror Poor odds $1.4k 70 devs
  42. Tower Defense + Horror Poor odds $1.4k 31 devs
  43. Investigation + Horror Poor odds $1.4k 599 devs
  44. Choose Your Own Adventure + Horror Poor odds $1.4k 356 devs
  45. Outbreak Sim + Horror Poor odds $1.4k 27 devs
  46. CRPG + Horror Poor odds $1.4k 42 devs
  47. FPS + Horror Poor odds $1.4k 749 devs
  48. 4 Player Local + Horror Poor odds $1.4k 24 devs
  49. Dungeon Crawler + Horror Poor odds $1.3k 250 devs
  50. Rhythm + Horror Poor odds $1.3k 17 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DayZ 2018 · $582M Dead by Daylight 2016 · $411M Phasmophobia 2020 · EA · $410M Ready or Not 2023 · $398M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
SILENT HILL 2 $69.99 43,367 94% 1.3M $91M (exactly $91,057,690) Bloober Team SA
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.