Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Horror

Of 501 developers who shipped a Horror Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 762 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×334 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 762 games are announced against 266 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 762 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 501
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $2.9k → $2.0k → $2.5k → $2.0k → $2.0k → $1.2k (still earning) → $297 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 501
Bottom 30% $386 (exactly $386)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $8.3k (exactly $8,252)
Top 5% $159k (exactly $158,841)
Developers, 2 yr 501
Released games 1,349
Announced 762
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Choices Matter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 61,513 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $8.2k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 338 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 762 games are announced against 266 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series older $49.99 36,594 96% 1.1M $55M (exactly $54,880,022) Skybound Games
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
魔女的夜宴 older $34.99 9,664 98% 290k $10M (exactly $10,144,301) YUZUSOFT
Tiny Bunny $10.99 27,200 83% 816k $9.0M (exactly $8,967,840) Saikono, Sokar
Little Misfortune older $19.99 11,789 92% 354k $7.1M (exactly $7,069,863) Killmonday Games AB
Unheard - Voices of Crime older $6.99 30,978 95% 929k $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) NEXT Studios
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
Scarlet Hollow · EA older $29.99 4,833 97% 145k $4.3M (exactly $4,348,250) Black Tabby Games
Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs older $19.99 7,236 69% 217k $4.3M (exactly $4,339,429) The Chinese Room
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
KARMA: The Dark World $24.99 3,963 90% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) POLLARD STUDIO LLC
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Cabernet $19.99 2,025 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) Party for Introverts
Forbidden Solitaire $15.99 2,245 96% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,076,926) Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertai… (Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertainment)
Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Clifftop Games
One-Eyed Likho $19.99 1,155 93% 35k $693k (exactly $692,654) Morteshka

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.