Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Simulation game?

Simulation + Horror

Of 1,129 developers who shipped a Horror Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,411 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×447 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,411 games are announced against 679 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 1,411 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,129
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $3.6k → $3.5k → $2.8k → $2.4k → $2.5k → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,129
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,793)
Top 5% $281k (exactly $280,613)
Developers, 2 yr 1,129
Released games 2,807
Announced 1,411
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Walking Simulator
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 298,946 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 615 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,411 games are announced against 679 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
People Playground older $9.99 298,158 98% 8.9M $89M (exactly $89,357,953) mestiez
Outer Wilds older $24.99 89,506 95% 2.7M $67M (exactly $67,102,648) Mobius Digital
The Isle · EA older $19.99 111,397 80% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,804,781) Afterthought LLC
The Long Dark older $19.99 110,264 89% 3.3M $66M (exactly $66,125,321) Hinterland Studio Inc.
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Halloween: The Game $39.99 11,868 68% 356k $14M (exactly $14,238,040) IllFonic
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
No, I'm not a Human $14.99 27,222 93% 817k $12M (exactly $12,241,733) Trioskaz
Liar's Bar · EA $6.99 48,708 89% 1.5M $10M (exactly $10,214,068) Curve Animation
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.