Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Exploration game?

Exploration + Horror

Of 2,277 developers who shipped a Horror Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,774 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×666 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 3,774 games are announced against 1,340 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 3,774 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,277
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $2.7k → $3.0k → $2.6k → $2.2k → $1.8k → $1.4k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,277
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,731)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,890)
Top 5% $316k (exactly $316,139)
Developers, 2 yr 2,277
Released games 5,700
Announced 3,774
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Survival Horror
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 1,070,090 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 1,276 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,774 games are announced against 1,340 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
Metro Exodus older $29.99 117,453 90% 3.5M $106M (exactly $105,672,464) 4A Games
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
SILENT HILL 2 $69.99 43,367 94% 1.3M $91M (exactly $91,057,690) Bloober Team SA
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Escape the Backrooms $9.99 137,315 90% 4.1M $41M (exactly $41,153,306) Fancy Games, Blackbird Interactive
SILENT HILL f $69.99 19,061 80% 572k $40M (exactly $40,022,382) NeoBards Entertainment Ltd.
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Mortal Shell II $49.99 18,644 79% 559k $28M (exactly $27,960,407) Cold Symmetry
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.