Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror game?

Horror

Of 4,954 developers who shipped a Horror game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,850 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×624 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 7,850 games are announced against 2,916 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 7,850 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 4,954
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $2.5k → $2.7k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.2k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 4,954
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,992)
Top 5% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Developers, 2 yr 4,954
Released games 15,221
Announced 7,850
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,343,421 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 2,907 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,850 games are announced against 2,916 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Horror

157 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Turn-Based + Horror Fair $32k 16 devs
  2. Automation + Horror Fair $8.0k 19 devs
  3. Shop Keeper + Horror Fair $5.1k 32 devs
  4. Split Screen + Horror Fair $4.3k 16 devs
  5. Minigames + Horror Fair $4.0k 12 devs
  6. Spectacle fighter + Horror Fair $3.7k 14 devs
  7. RTS + Horror Fair $2.4k 20 devs
  8. Escape Room + Horror Fair $2.4k 96 devs
  9. Trivia + Horror Fair $1.9k 14 devs
  10. Walking Simulator + Horror Fair $1.5k 1,169 devs
  11. Sports + Horror Fair $1.3k 21 devs
  12. Incremental + Horror Fair $1.2k 105 devs
  13. Precision Platformer + Horror Fair $1.0k 68 devs
  14. Hidden Object + Horror Fair $897 725 devs
  15. Tabletop + Horror Fair $776 50 devs
  16. Collectathon + Horror Fair $718 113 devs
  17. Arcade + Horror Fair $479 301 devs
  18. City Builder + Horror Poor odds $157k 10 devs
  19. Co-op Campaign + Horror Poor odds $14k 31 devs
  20. Open World Survival Craft + Horror Poor odds $14k 18 devs
  21. FMV + Horror Poor odds $13k 50 devs
  22. Social Deduction + Horror Poor odds $10k 22 devs
  23. Farming Sim + Horror Poor odds $10k 22 devs
  24. Dating Sim + Horror Poor odds $8.7k 110 devs
  25. Job Simulator + Horror Poor odds $8.6k 20 devs
  26. Economy + Horror Poor odds $7.9k 30 devs
  27. Building + Horror Poor odds $7.3k 70 devs
  28. Souls-like + Horror Poor odds $7.0k 92 devs
  29. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Horror Poor odds $6.0k 19 devs
  30. Base Building + Horror Poor odds $5.5k 64 devs
  31. Card Game + Horror Poor odds $5.4k 80 devs
  32. Fishing + Horror Poor odds $5.4k 23 devs
  33. Co-op + Horror Poor odds $5.3k 448 devs
  34. Cooking + Horror Poor odds $5.1k 46 devs
  35. Metroidvania + Horror Poor odds $4.9k 43 devs
  36. Grid-Based Movement + Horror Poor odds $4.8k 26 devs
  37. Otome + Horror Poor odds $4.7k 15 devs
  38. Crafting + Horror Poor odds $4.6k 123 devs
  39. Sandbox + Horror Poor odds $4.5k 121 devs
  40. Gun Customization + Horror Poor odds $4.5k 36 devs
  41. Turn-Based Combat + Horror Poor odds $4.2k 94 devs
  42. Online Co-Op + Horror Poor odds $4.0k 479 devs
  43. Hack and Slash + Horror Poor odds $4.0k 101 devs
  44. Local Co-Op + Horror Poor odds $4.0k 45 devs
  45. Character Customization + Horror Poor odds $3.6k 162 devs
  46. Tactical RPG + Horror Poor odds $3.6k 33 devs
  47. Loot + Horror Poor odds $3.1k 90 devs
  48. God Game + Horror Poor odds $3.1k 16 devs
  49. Management + Horror Poor odds $3.1k 108 devs
  50. Roguelite + Horror Poor odds $3.0k 256 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DayZ 2018 · $582M Dead by Daylight 2016 · $411M Phasmophobia 2020 · EA · $410M Ready or Not 2023 · $398M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
SILENT HILL 2 $69.99 43,367 94% 1.3M $91M (exactly $91,057,690) Bloober Team SA
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.