Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Driving game?

Driving + Horror

Of 53 developers who shipped a Horror Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2726 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 72 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 72 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $51k → $14k → $16k → $2.1k → $2.0k → $6.9k → $2.4k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,973)
Top 25% $8.5k (exactly $8,499)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,711,698)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 110
Announced 72
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 45,647 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.4k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Long Drive · EA older $15.99 50,184 88% 1.5M $24M (exactly $24,073,265) Genesz
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
HROT older $19.99 5,299 96% 159k $3.2M (exactly $3,177,810) Spytihněv
Fears to Fathom - Ironbark Lookout older $9.99 6,081 92% 182k $1.8M (exactly $1,822,476) Rayll Studios
Fears to Fathom® - Scratch Creek $7.99 7,141 75% 214k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,698) Rayll
MOLE $12.99 3,534 97% 106k $1.4M (exactly $1,377,200) Off Black Creations
FlatOut 3: Chaos & Destruction older $9.99 3,672 17% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,100,498) Team 6 Studios
Storm Chasers · EA older $12.99 2,763 89% 83k $1.1M (exactly $1,076,741) Little Cloud Games
Outbreak Island · EA $14.99 955 78% 29k $429k (exactly $429,464) Tiny Magicians
Brno Transit $8.99 589 85% 18k $159k (exactly $158,853) Spytihněv
Nightmare Drive · EA $14.99 156 78% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Voidfiller
True Nightmare - Roadside Сafe $7.99 135 80% 4.1k $32k (exactly $32,360) Frost Fox Studios
Horizon Journey · EA $12.99 81 22% 2.4k $32k (exactly $31,566) Redivided Studios, REIN
Backseat $9.99 85 71% 2.6k $25k (exactly $25,474) HOGO Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.