Should I ship a Horror FPS?
FPS + Horror
Of 749 developers who shipped a Horror FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,099 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×361 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 1,099 games are announced against 395 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $360 (exactly $360) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,350) |
| Top 25% | $8.4k (exactly $8,392) |
| Top 5% | $541k (exactly $540,534) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 749 |
| Released games | 2,212 |
| Announced | 1,099 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 272,611 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 434 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,099 games are announced against 395 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
Ready or Not 2023 · $398M 
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 2019 · $287M 
Dying Light 2015 · $280M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Ready or Not | older | $49.99 | 265,219 79% | 8.0M | $398M (exactly $397,748,934) | VOID Interactive |
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | Halo: The Master Chief Collection | older | $39.99 | 239,603 92% | 7.2M | $287M (exactly $287,451,719) | 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive) |
| | Dying Light | older | $24.99 | 373,413 95% | 11M | $280M (exactly $279,947,726) | Techland |
 | Deep Rock Galactic | older | $29.99 | 303,142 97% | 9.1M | $273M (exactly $272,736,857) | Ghost Ship Games |
 | Left 4 Dead 2 | older | $9.99 | 816,316 97% | 24M | $245M (exactly $244,649,905) | Valve |
 | Resident Evil Requiem | $69.99 | 106,931 95% | 3.2M | $225M (exactly $224,523,021) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Hunt: Showdown 1896 | older | $29.99 | 213,023 74% | 6.4M | $192M (exactly $191,656,793) | Crytek |
 | DOOM Eternal | older | $29.99 | 187,483 91% | 5.6M | $169M (exactly $168,678,455) | id Software |
 | Witchfire | · EA | $39.99 | 17,131 91% | 514k | $21M (exactly $20,552,061) | The Astronauts |
 | Killing Floor 3 | $39.99 | 16,493 46% | 495k | $20M (exactly $19,786,652) | Tripwire Interactive | |
 | No More Room in Hell 2 | $29.99 | 16,725 62% | 502k | $15M (exactly $15,047,482) | Torn Banner Studios | |
 | Drive Beyond Horizons | · EA | $24.99 | 17,903 77% | 537k | $13M (exactly $13,421,879) | Drive Beyond Horizons |
 | Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core | · EA | $29.99 | 14,049 60% | 421k | $13M (exactly $12,639,885) | Ghost Ship Games |
 | Deadzone: Rogue | $24.99 | 15,041 82% | 451k | $11M (exactly $11,276,238) | Prophecy Games | |
 | Liar's Bar | · EA | $6.99 | 48,708 89% | 1.5M | $10M (exactly $10,214,068) | Curve Animation |
 | John Carpenter's Toxic Commando | $39.99 | 6,274 72% | 188k | $7.5M (exactly $7,526,918) | Saber Interactive | |
 | White Knuckle | · EA | $16.99 | 13,356 98% | 401k | $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) | Dark Machine Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.