Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Horror

Of 69 developers who shipped a Horror Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 118 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $720k, ×1152 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 118 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 118 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $2.7k → $2.7k → $2.4k → $9.6k → $2.4k → $2.2k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,986)
Top 5% $723k (exactly $723,238)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 170
Announced 118
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Dark, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 58,221 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $720k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 118 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mewgenics 2026 · $45M Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden 2018 · $14M Othercide 2020 · $4.1M Phoenix Point 2020 · $4.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Disciples: Liberation older $39.99 2,706 73% 81k $3.2M (exactly $3,246,388) Frima Studio
Terminus: Zombie Survivors older $19.99 4,340 94% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,602,698) Longplay Studios
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
NO-SKIN $6.99 1,227 95% 37k $257k (exactly $257,302) NoEye-Soft
Tenebris: Terra Incognita $19.99 313 79% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Phantasmica Studios
Winnie's Hole · EA $15.99 326 94% 9.8k $156k (exactly $156,382) Twice Different
R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos $49.99 94 82% 2.8k $141k (exactly $140,972) Granzella Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.