Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Physics game?

Physics + Horror

Of 291 developers who shipped a Horror Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 468 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×702 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 468 games are announced against 178 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 468 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 291
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $2.7k → $3.7k → $1.2k → $2.6k → $1.2k → $1.1k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 291
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,082)
Top 5% $441k (exactly $440,779)
Developers, 2 yr 291
Released games 612
Announced 468
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 694,719 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 131 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 468 games are announced against 178 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M People Playground 2019 · $89M PEAK 2025 · $72M Half-Life 2 2004 · $61M Bodycam 2024 · EA · $60M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
People Playground older $9.99 298,158 98% 8.9M $89M (exactly $89,357,953) mestiez
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Half-Life 2 older $9.99 202,782 97% 6.1M $61M (exactly $60,773,765) Valve
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Gorilla Tag older $19.99 52,637 93% 1.6M $32M (exactly $31,566,409) Another Axiom Inc.
BONEWORKS older $29.99 34,141 92% 1.0M $31M (exactly $30,716,658) Stress Level Zero
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy older $7.99 75,118 82% 2.3M $18M (exactly $18,005,785) Bennett Foddy
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
YAPYAP $9.99 8,385 83% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) Maison Bap
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
Baby Steps $19.99 2,355 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,294) Gabe Cuzzillo, Maxi Boch, Bennett Foddy
Burglin' Gnomes $9.99 4,635 83% 139k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) Fobri
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
Machine Party $7.99 4,199 87% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,006,500) Mike Klubnika, GDeavid
The Walking Trade $11.99 2,733 86% 82k $983k (exactly $983,060) Microwave Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.