Do I ship it?

GamesSubmarineSubmarine + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Submarine game?

Submarine + Horror

Only 18 developers shipped a Horror Submarine game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Darkwater, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×472 the market median. Revenue is up 1500% on the market; 31 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 1500% on the market, 31 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Submarine + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $6.7k → $1.5k → $628 → $9.6k (still earning) → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Submarine + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,745)
Top 5% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 46
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1500% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Submarine
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Submarine; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,363 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Submarine with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NatureFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  2. + StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  3. + Naval CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $3.4k · 19 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds10 devs · median $3.0k · 21 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  6. + SimulationPoor odds38 devs · median $2.7k · 49 announced
  7. + Open WorldPoor odds10 devs · median $2.4k · 18 announced
  8. + Sci-fiPoor odds18 devs · median $1.8k · 34 announced
  9. + NavalPoor odds19 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  10. + ExplorationPoor odds32 devs · median $959 · 72 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $958 · 65 announced
  12. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $958 · 20 announced

All 22 pairs on the Submarine page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
Iron Lung older $7.99 10,168 92% 305k $2.4M (exactly $2,437,270) David Szymanski
Under The Waves older $29.99 1,683 77% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,195) Parallel Studio
STASIS: BONE TOTEM older $19.99 2,025 93% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) THE BROTHERHOOD
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
KURSK older $19.99 445 47% 13k $267k (exactly $266,866) Jujubee S.A.
Static Dread: The Submarine $11.99 307 81% 9.2k $110k (exactly $110,428) solarsuit.games
Subterror $7.99 397 90% 12k $95k (exactly $95,161) Team Monumental
Sonar Shock older $7.99 224 80% 6.7k $54k (exactly $53,693) Raphael Bossniak
The Sirena Expedition older $5.99 135 82% 4.1k $24k (exactly $24,260) Giraffe Cat
There's Nothing Down There $2.00 394 84% 12k $24k (exactly $23,640) Tim Trankle
CRUSH DEPTH $7.99 49 97% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Earth Giant
The Oily Depths $2.99 107 84% 3.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,598) Ryan R. Burns
The Abyss Below $4.99 58 81% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Broken Relay
Sonar Scout $5.99 26 100% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Do… (Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Doppelmayr, Christoph Englert, Pontus Liljekvist, Hugo Roque)
Submeris $4.99 19 57% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) OxygenStudio
Dark of the Depths $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GhastlyVastly

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.