Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Horror

Of 545 developers who shipped a Horror Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 772 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×204 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 772 games are announced against 308 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 772 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 545
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $6.7k → $3.9k → $2.2k → $3.0k → $2.6k → $1.5k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 545
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,691)
Top 5% $305k (exactly $304,876)
Developers, 2 yr 545
Released games 1,124
Announced 772
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 56,986 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 308 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 772 games are announced against 308 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Prey older $29.99 37,759 90% 1.1M $34M (exactly $33,971,772) Arkane Studios
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
BioShock™ Remastered older $19.99 52,500 83% 1.6M $31M (exactly $31,484,250) 2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel… (2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
BioShock™ older $19.99 25,188 93% 756k $15M (exactly $15,105,244) 2K Boston, 2K Australia
BioShock™ 2 Remastered older $19.99 24,316 72% 729k $15M (exactly $14,582,305) 2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2… (2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac))
System Shock older $39.99 9,786 90% 294k $12M (exactly $11,740,264) Nightdive Studios
Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines older $19.99 13,889 94% 417k $8.3M (exactly $8,329,233) Troika Games
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Project Silverfish · EA $29.99 3,138 93% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) Siris Pendrake
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
Peripeteia · EA $24.99 3,120 86% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,339,064) Ninth Exodus
System Shock 2: 25th Anniversary Remaster $29.99 1,803 87% 54k $1.6M (exactly $1,622,159) Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studio… (Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studios, Irrational Games)
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
The Complex: Expedition $14.99 2,620 89% 79k $1.2M (exactly $1,178,214) pgWave
DON'T SCREAM $7.99 4,505 65% 135k $1.1M (exactly $1,079,848) Digital Cybercherries

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.