Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Horror

Of 75 developers who shipped a Horror Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×592 the market median. Revenue is up 580% on the market; 100 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 580% on the market, 100 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 75
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $7.3k → $3.4k → $3.0k → $359 → $1.3k → $5.4k (still earning) → $9.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 75
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,354)
Top 5% $372k (exactly $371,814)
Developers, 2 yr 75
Released games 168
Announced 100
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 580% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Dark, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 56,222 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Disciples: Liberation older $39.99 2,706 73% 81k $3.2M (exactly $3,246,388) Frima Studio
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Labyrinth of Galleria: The Moon Society older $49.99 553 82% 17k $829k (exactly $829,334) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Tenebris: Terra Incognita $19.99 313 79% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Phantasmica Studios
Shards of Order $9.99 578 90% 17k $173k (exactly $173,227) Fardust
R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos $49.99 94 82% 2.8k $141k (exactly $140,972) Granzella Inc.
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
SIDE EFFECTS $4.99 858 83% 26k $128k (exactly $128,443) hirohun, Mr.Pootsley, Jaybooty, Lofar42

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.